How Do You Know Ghost Guns Are Proliferating if They are Ghosts?

In last week’s article, Democratic lawmakers advocating for gun barrel registration asserted that the measure would halt the proliferation of ghost guns. This raised an obvious question: how can anyone measure the spread of firearms that, by definition, are untraceable? I asked AI for insight, and its response follows below.

? What the Data Shows

There is no complete, official count of how many ghost guns exist in the U.S. Because these firearms are unregistered and don’t carry serial numbers, there isn’t a national registry or tracking system that tells us exactly how many are out there. However, there are statistics on how many have been recovered by law enforcement — which is one way to understand trends.

According to federal data:

• Between 2017 and 2023, law enforcement agencies reported about 92,702 recovered ghost guns (recovered at crime scenes or seized), and that figure has been rising sharply.
• In that same period, ghost guns linked to criminal investigations (not just recovered and held) went from about 1,629 in 2017 to ~27,490 in 2023.
• In 2022 alone, roughly 27,616 suspected ghost guns were reported to the ATF, a 24% increase over the previous year.
• Between 2016 and 2021, around 72,000 privately made firearms were reported to federal authorities.

So, while these figures only count ghost guns that have been found and reported, they show a dramatic upward trend in law enforcement recoveries over the past several years.

? Why Reliable Totals Are Hard to Get

Experts — even those who support regulation — acknowledge it’s impossible to know the true number of ghost guns in private hands:

• Because many aren’t traced or reported, we only see a fraction of what’s out there.
• Some data combines guns made at home with guns that had serial numbers removed.
• And until ghost guns are required to be serialized or tracked, authorities won’t have a complete census.

? Key Takeaways

✔️ Recoveries of ghost guns have soared in recent years (many-fold increases).
✔️ Tens of thousands have been recovered or reported, but this is not the total number in circulation.
✔️ There is no definitive national count of ghost guns in private possession because they’re unregistered by definition.

? So Is “Ghost Gun Proliferation” a Fact?

The data does show an increase in recoveries and use in crime, which is why proponents of laws like California’s or Colorado’s argue for stricter rules. However, because there’s no accurate total count, critics often argue the concern is overstated or used to justify broader restrictions even though the absolute scale in the general gun-owning population is unclear.

Next week I will show you the answer I received when I asked for a comparison between ghost guns recovered by police and other categories of firearms recovered in crimes, including stolen and illegally trafficked guns. You will see that ghost guns make up a very small percentage.